Japan Energy Currents
Japan Energy Currents
More renewables, less nuclear; Japanese companies reach for “natural hydrogen,” African electric grids, and lots of carbon capture; IEA World Outlook 2024
Every week, Japan Energy Currents highlights recent news and analyses that give us a better understanding of the current moment in Japan’s energy landscape and its role in the global energy transition.
*Some articles will be in Japanese and some will be paywalled. But I’ll aim to summarize each article with enough detail so you won’t miss out.
This week, I bring you eight stories that caught my attention. They’re a little heavier on the corporate and tech side than usual, especially in carbon capture and storage (CCS), so brace yourself!
Japan
1. PM Ishiba wants more renewables and less nuclear (Nikkei Asia)
More renewables (esp. geothermal, wind, and hydroelectric), less nuclear. That was Ishiba’s message during an exclusive interview with Nikkei Asia.
Just as he did during his LDP leadership campaign, Ishiba pointed to Japan’s tremendous renewable energy potential, and argued that it should be a priority to develop these energy sources. In his words, “as a result of fully utilizing this renewable energy potential, it’s likely that the share of nuclear power [in the energy mix] will go down.”
But he also stressed that “reducing nuclear energy itself is not the goal,” and that “obviously, nuclear energy needs to be utilized” to supply electricity to power-hungry AI and data centers.
Ishiba’s prioritization of renewables will need to be incorporated into the Strategic Energy Plan that the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) is currently formulating. METI Minister made clear in an October 8 press conference that they’re discussing how to increase small-scale hydro and geothermal now.
But it’s not clear how Ishiba’s desire to reduce nuclear in the long term will square with the METI Minister’s penchant for restarting reactors. And all of this, of course, assumes that there aren’t key personnel changes as a result of the October 27 general elections.
2. Japanese companies to pursue new tech to trap CO2 in basalt (Nikkei Asia)
Japanese and US organizations will work together to develop a way to capture and inject CO2 into basalt, a type of volcanic rock that’s widely distributed around the world. That basalt will then be turned into a mineral via a chemical reaction.
Two Japanese companies — JX Nippon Oil & Gas Exploration and Japan Carbon Frontier Organization — will sign an agreement with the University of Wyoming to conduct field trials to commercialize that technology.
Japan might be able to store at least 1.47 billion tonnes of CO2 in basalt rocks in and around the country. That’s the equivalent to 30x the CO2 absorbed by its forests in 2022.
US and Europe are already ahead in this technology, and Iceland has already launched it commercially. The University of Wyoming is moving ahead with field trials in the US state of Oregon.
3. Mitsubishi Electric to develop direct ocean capture (Mitsubishi Electric)
“Direct ocean capture” (DOC) is a set of methods to remove CO2 from seawater.
Mitsubishi Electric and Finnish VTT Technical Research Center signed an agreement to jointly develop technologies including DOC.
DOC is aimed at helping eliminate ocean acidification. Ocean acidification happens when ocean pH drops because of excessive CO2 absorption from the atmosphere, turning seawater more acidic and threatening coral and other marine ecosystems.
DOC is among a suite of CO2 removal technologies that Mitsubishi Electric is pursuing en route to reaching its goal of zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2051.
4. Japan expected to lead captured CO2 trade in APAC by 2050 (Hydrocarbon Engineering)
Japan is projected to become the lead trade hub for captured CO2 by 2050 in the Asia-Pacific region. That’s according to Wood Mackenzie.
CO2 capture capacity in Japan is expected to reach 55 million tons per year by 2050 in Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. Being land-scarce, Japan’s CO2 storage capacity is limited, so 80% of the captured CO2 will likely be exported. This is what will make Japan the top country in the region for cross-border carbon transport (storage projects are now under way in Southeast Asia, North America, and elsewhere).
Japan’s greenhouse gas emissions accounts for ~7% of East Asia's emissions and 2.5% of the global total. Much of this comes from its industrial and power sectors.
5. MHI invests in natural hydrogen (Hydrogen Insight)
Industrial giant Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI), along with Osaka Gas, will invest in the US-based natural-hydrogen explorer Koloma.
“Natural hydrogen” (a.k.a. white or gold hydrogen) is hydrogen gas that’s found in source rocks underground. The US government has said that there is enough natural hydrogen deposits on the planet to meet all energy demand for hundreds of years (!!!). There’s now a gold rush for the gas, with 40 companies looking for it across eight countries. But production will likely need to be heavily subsidized.
Investments by MHI and Osaka Gas are part of Koloma’s Series B “extension” round. Denver-based Koloma already raised $245 million in February this year. Bill Gates’ investment vehicle Breakthrough Energy Ventures, Amazon’s climate fund, and the venture capital arm of United Airlines are among Koloma’s equity investors. It also received funding from the US Department of Energy.
For Japan, investments by MHI and Osaka Gas might serve to further the government’s hydrogen goals. The government is hoping to increase hydrogen supply to 12 million tonnes by 2040 and 20 million tonnes by 2050. The vast majority of this supply will be met by imports.
6. MHI’s Gas Turbine Orders Reach 150 in China (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries)
As a testament to the breadth of technologies (both clean and fossil fuel-related) Mitsubishi promotes, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries celebrated the orders of 150 of its high-efficiency gas turbine units in China.
MHI sells its gas turbines in China through its partner, Dongfang Turbine Co. MHI has been gradually growing its Chinese business since 2003. Shipments of gas turbines reached 100 units in March 2024, and 150 on October 15.
Rising demand for high-efficiency gas turbines in China reflects the country’s rising electricity demand, its appetite for replacing aging coal plants, and back-up (”load-following”) power sources in line with its expanding renewable energy capacity.
7. TEPCO supports power grid construction in Africa (Nikkei GX | in Japanese)
Tokyo Electric Power Services, a subsidiary of Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), announced that it’ll help develop an inter-regional electric grid in Africa.
Specifically, it’ll assist with the planning of power source and grid interconnection enhancements across 26 countries in southern and western Africa, based on demand forecasts. It’ll also share its expertise in power management and market operations to help resolve power shortages and frequent blackouts. This project is expected to last until September 2027.
TEPCO has a track record in a similar project. Since 2021, TEPCO has worked with Kyushu Electric Power Transmission and Distribution to help develop power grids in Kenya.
Global
8. Geopolitical tensions are laying bare fragilities in the global energy system (International Energy Agency)
The world is entering a new energy market context marked by continued geopolitical risks but also abundant supply of multiple fuels (oil and LNG, for example) and technologies (e.g. solar PV and batteries). This is according to the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2024.
Escalating conflict in the Middle East and Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine highlight how the world continues to face energy security risks.
Electricity use has grown at 2x the pace of overall energy demand over the last decade, and two-thirds of that growth has come from China. This trends is set to continue in the years ahead.
As the IEA must be tired of saying by now, more investments into new energy systems are needed for clean energy to keep growing at pace. This is especially true in electricity grids and energy storage, which aren’t keeping pace with the growth of renewable energy generation.
What caught your attention in Japan Energy Currents this week? Any other news you’d like to share? Let me know in the comments.
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