Hey Power Japan readers,
Happy New Year. 明けましておめでとうございます。
As you may have noticed, this post marks the debut of my audio segment here on Power Japan. So you can listen along as I narrate this New Year update, if you so fancy. Later in this post, I’ll explain in more detail what the audio component will look like for the rest of the year.
For a newsletter focusing on Japan’s climate change actions and clean energy transition on both the domestic and international fronts, the year 2025 will have much to offer. Here I’d like to outline the real-world events and themes I will be paying attention to this year, and also the changes I’ll be implementing to Power Japan.
Politics, Climate, and Energy in 2025
Let me first signpost the events and developments in the political, climate, and energy spheres that are on my radar for 2025.
Nationally Determined Contribution
Japan will be finalizing its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) by February. As far as we know, Japan is aiming for a 60% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, using 2013 as the baseline. That’s a linear trajectory from its current goal of reducing emissions by 46% by 2030, and it’s supposed to keep Japan on track for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
But as I wrote in one of my last posts last year, there have been plenty of criticisms for these targets, both in terms of the assumptions underlying them and the process by which the targets were formulated.
Anyway, the government is soliciting public comments for the proposed NDC as we speak until the end of January. Then, in all likelihood, it’ll be approved by the Cabinet before being submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change by February.
7th Strategic Energy Plan
Speaking of public comment, two other pieces of government strategy are also in their public comment period at the same time as the NDC. The first is the 7th Strategic Energy Plan (SEP).
The SEP is a document crafted by METI once every three years to clarify its thinking and vision for how the Japanese energy system will be shaped in the medium-term. The 7th SEP offers a roadmap until the year 2040. With domestic energy consumption expected to rise thanks to new data center construction and semiconductor manufacturing, as well as drastic changes in the global energy landscape, the SEP this time around looks very different than the one published in 2021.
I plan on doing several deep-dives on the SEP in the coming weeks, so be on the lookout for those.
GX 2040 Vision
A document titled the “GX 2040 Vision” is also up for public comment.
GX, of course, refers to the Japanese government’s peculiar abbreviation of Green Transformation, a sprawling industrial policy aimed at coupling decarbonization, economic stimulus, and international competitiveness of Japanese industries. The GX 2040 Vision encapsulates this strategy and suggests rules and standards for its practical implementation. This too will be finalized by the end of the Japanese fiscal year, which goes until March this year.
Other Energy Topics
A few other energy trends I’m keeping an eye on is Japan’s hydrogen strategy, offshore wind projects, and the Asia Zero Emission Community.
Japan has big ambitions for producing, importing, and using hydrogen to reduce carbon emissions in a wide range of industries. The government’s main tool for fulfilling those ambitions is a subsidy scheme for hydrogen suppliers and buyers, and this policy began late last year. So it’s very much worth watching how effective it is.
Like other markets, Japan’s offshore wind sector is running into supply chain challenges, high costs, and uncertain outlooks. Offshore wind, especially floating offshore wind energy, holds real promise to turn Japan into a renewable energy giant. But because of these challenges, METI isn’t holding its breath on massive deployments of offshore wind projects. Regardless, Japan will need a skilled workforce and some level of domestic supply chain to scale this sector up.
The Asia Zero Emission Community (AZEC), which is Japan’s energy transition initiative in Southeast Asia, is set to become more systematized this year. 2024 was a big year for AZEC: Prime Minister Ishiba unveiled a 10-year action plan for AZEC soon after winning the premiership, the Asia Zero Emission Center was established in Jakarta as the Community’s headquarters, and dozens of bilateral and multilateral deals were signed under its umbrella. This year will likely see more of the same.
Politics: Domestic and International
With the coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito losing its majority seats in the Diet, 2024 “proved to be an extraordinarily momentous year for Japanese politics,” in the words of Tobias Harris at Observing Japan.
I can’t pretend to be half the analyst of Japanese politics proper that Tobias is, and it’s not yet clear to me how the LDP’s need to work with opposition parties will affect the country’s climate and energy policies. But I’ll certainly be keeping my antennas out for how the negotiations and jockeying between and within parties might impact energy and climate.
Arguably more consequential for Japan’s energy transition and energy security is Donald Trump’s reclamation of the White House. It looks like Prime Minister Ishiba will be meeting with President Trump in February but this isn’t decided yet. Although US-Japan relations are not likely to fundamentally change, leaders in Tokyo are worried that the Trump administration might raise tariffs on Japanese imports or pressure Japan to pay more for hosting US troops and ramp up its defense spending.
The whole world is trying to read the tea leaves on Trump’s domestic and foreign policy. How he deals with Russia and Ukraine, the escalating conflicts in the Middle East, whether he’ll be able to increase US oil and gas production like he’s been threatening to do, and how far he’ll undermine the US Inflation Reduction Act and other clean energy incentives will surely send shock waves across the Pacific.
One thing that’s on everyone’s lips and certainly robbing Japan’s political and business elites of their sleep is the looming escalation in US-China tensions. Many Japanese companies operate in or have manufacturing bases in China, and Trump’s threat of tariff hikes on Chinese imports is making them rethink their supply chains. This may draw Japan and Southeast Asia ever closer together, and accelerate Japan’s energy investments in the region, including fossil fuel-related funding.
Then, there are the usual high-level summits where we can take the global temperature on climate and energy, along with security, defense, economy, and other issues. South Korea will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit with an agenda focused on global trade, supply chains and climate change response. The G20 will be held in South Africa and the UN climate change summit in Brazil.
Anyway, those are the things on the horizon. I’m sure other things will spring up and blindside me, and I’ll do my best to write about the more important and relevant surprises, too.
Power Japan in 2025
I’d like to now direct your attention to this Substack, Power Japan.
As I’ve said in a post sometime ago, Power Japan truly is where my mind goes when it goes wandering. It’s the place where I feel free to follow my own curiosity, arrive at my own conclusions, and write in my own voice. All of that on the topics that most intrigue me: climate and energy politics in Japan and its role in the world.
For subscribers who are new to Power Japan, perhaps it’ll be helpful to go over the four types of content I’ve been posting here.
First, there are the Current Event posts. These are weekly posts that most often take the form of what I started calling “Japan Energy Currents,” which are essentially compilations of energy and climate news in Japan that I came across during the week that preceded the post. I also occasionally offer more detailed posts about a salient event that caught my attention under the Current Events category. Current Events posts are free for everyone to read.
The second bucket is the Summary posts. ****I cherish reading things that aren't strictly related to recent events but still deepen our understanding of the political economy of energy, climate, Japan, and other societies. Summary posts are opportunities for me to summarize and comment on books, articles, and reports that may enrich your worldviews on these issues. Again, these are free for all to access.
The third category is the Deep Dive. These longer-form analyses will go into detail about Japan's energy issues through a political and economic lens. This is based on my belief that, no matter how much news you consume, it seldom amounts to a comprehensive and nuanced picture of an issue. That's all the more true for issues as complex as climate change and energy. Deep Dives are available for paid subscribers only.
Last but absolutely not least, there are the Conversation posts. I occasionally interview experts and movers and shakers of Japan's energy and climate landscape. I may publish these conversations as a Q&A format or embed them in broader stories, depending on the meat of the conversation. These posts, too, are for paid subscribers.
These categories will remain intact as we enter the new year. Now you know the types of posts that will be coming your way.
But beyond this, I have in mind a few changes I’d like to roll out this year. All of these changes are intended for me to better engage with you, dear reader. Writing is traditionally a solitary pursuit. That’s because the writer normally doesn’t interact with many others about the form and substance of their writing.
But there are many ways to overcome this and Substack offers tools to forge a vibrant community around a newsletter. I’ll be the first to admit that I have not taken full advantage of those tools so far. This year, I’d like to change that so that I can know you a little better, understand what stories, information, thoughts and insights you find interesting and important, and what kind of delivery resonates most with you. If all goes well, that’ll make Power Japan more relevant and more interesting for you, and make Power Japan much more enjoyable for me to keep creating.
So, what do I have in mind?
Audio
The first change is the one you’re listening to right now. This year, I’d like to add my literal voice to the longer posts I write. That means narrating the Deep Dive and Conversation posts which tend to be lengthier to make them easier to digest.
The audio pieces will accompany the written posts at the top of the page and will be available to paid subscribers. If you have the Substack app on your phone, you should be able to listen to them just like you would listen to a podcast.
As for the Current Events and Summary posts, I won’t be recording narrations, at least for now. So if you’d like to get the audio along with the Deep Dive and Conversation posts, consider upgrading to a paid subscription for USD10.00 a month or USD100.00 for the year if you haven’t already.
Subscriber Survey
To get a better idea of what you find valuable in Power Japan, I’d like to ask you directly in the form of a survey. Which topics do you find interesting and insightful? Why are you interested in Power Japan in the first place?
In a previous announcement I posted a few months back, I talked about a poll but didn’t follow through. This time I intend to. So look out for the survey email in your inbox over the next few days.
Quarterly AMA sessions
This is a big one. In the spirit of creating a true community, I’ll be hosting a quarterly live ask-me-anything webinar for paid subscribers. The platform will likely be Zoom or Google Meet.
As for the webinar’s agenda, I’d like to first introduce myself, then go over the impetus and my motivation behind starting Power Japan. I may also give a brief outlook on Japan’s climate and energy policy for the upcoming quarter, although I’d like to keep my own talking reasonably short so as to leave ample time for a free flowing ask-me-anything session.
The first of these sessions will be at the end of March, then late June, late September, and then mid-December. I’ll send out a registration form about a month before each session, so keep an eye out for that. Once again, these webinars will be for paid subscribers only. So if you’d like to participate, consider becoming a paid reader for USD10.00 a month or USD100.00 for the year.
Subscriber Chat
I just posted my first Substack chat for subscribers as another tool for closer engagement with readers. As I wrote there, I'll use the chat function as a place for sharing my posts along with my thoughts, news I come across, and any question I might have for you. Any subscriber can respond to the threads that I start, and paid subscribers can start new threads. I'm still figuring out how to use the chat function optimally, but hopefully this will serve as a good start.
Here’s to 2025
That’s it for the New Year update. It was a lot of info, so thank you for reading/listening. As always, if you have any thoughts, questions, or suggestions, please put them in the comments section below or in the chat.
Stay warm and stay safe.
Walter
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