Kishida’s COP28 Speech
What it reveals about Japan’s continuing fossil fuel dependency
[You can also read this story in Japanese here]
Another COP is behind us. Depending on where you stand, the conference's outcome looks very different. For climate advocates and small island nations, that the COP agreement left out the term fossil fuel ”phase out” is an abomination. For others, a “transition” from fossil fuels “in a just, orderly and equitable manner,” the establishment of the loss and damage fund, an agreement by more than 120 countries to triple renewable energy and double energy efficiency count as a win in a conference where consensus and compromise are critical. Cipher News has a nice summary of the COP28 deal.
But this is Power Japan, so I wanted to zoom into one aspect of this year’s COP. And that’s the speech by Prime Minister Kishida during the first week of the conference.
In his speech in Dubai, Kishida vowed to “end new construction of domestic unabated coal power plants.” But nearly every word in this promise is problematic. Japan quickly underdelivered at the climate summit marking the end of the hottest year on record.
Let’s take a look at each part of Kishida’s promise more closely.
”Unabated”
First is “unabated.” In climate jargon, “abated” power plants are those with carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies to reduce their emissions. Phasing out unabated fossil fuels sounds eminently desirable. But the capture rate of CCUS applied to power plants has been a consistent disappointment and, in an era when renewables are the cheapest energy sources, it hardly makes sense to allocate enormous subsidies for CCUS simply to preserve fossil fuels. As Bill McKibbin recently wrote, CCUS is the “fossil fuel industry scam de jour decade.”
Another problem with Kishida’s use of “unabated” is that the Japanese government has never really defined it. Judging from its publications, it considers things like co-firing coal with ammonia or hydrogen as abatement solutions, along with CCUS. But as Japan’s biggest power company can tell you, this technology is yet to be commercially demonstrated. In other words, it’s as good as unabated.
Another gaping loophole in Kishida's speech is the “new construction” clause. As confirmed by a foreign ministry official, the Prime Minister’s pledge doesn’t affect the 171 coal plants that are in operation in Japan or the two that are under construction.
“Domestic”
The next red flag is “domestic.” Sure, with close to nine-tenths of its total domestic primary energy supply coming from fossil fuels, Japan has a strong motive to keep its thermal power plants. But another reason is its extensive coal and gas funding abroad.
Japanese corporates are ubiquitous in the global coal landscape. Altogether, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, JERA, IHI, J-Power, Itochu, Kansai Electric Power, and Sumitomo hold stakes in 50 coal power plants outside of Japan.
The government has had a heavy hand in aiding these private-sector efforts. Japan’s public financial institutions have historically been a top funder of fossil fuels globally. Even after dozens of countries agreed to halt public investments in fossil fuels in 2021, Japan continue to fund gas projects in Uzbekistan, India, and Indonesia, totaling at least USD 449 million.
The government’s international fossil fuel support also takes the form of the Asia Zero Emissions Community that Kishida launched with 10 other countries in Asia last year. Through this forum, Japan’s industry ministry aims to create markets for fossil fuel-preserving technologies like ammonia co-firing and CCUS that Japanese firms are developing.
“Coal-Power Plants”
Last and certainly not least is Kishida’s singling out of coal plants in his phase-out promise. A strategic choice of words, it leaves the issue of phasing out oil or gas off the table.
Gas is particularly critical. Japan is one of the world’s largest consumers of natural gas and the second largest importer - after China - of LNG. First shipped to Japan from Alaska in 1969, LNG has become Japan’s lifeblood since the oil shocks in the 1970s. The government plans to reduce its dependence on LNG by 2030 but by no means phase it out.
This means relying on gas production abroad. Mitsui and Mitsubishi continue to own 12.5% and 10% of the Sakhalin 2 project in Russia, respectively, even after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine. A consortium of Japanese companies persists in holding onto the Arctic 2 LNG project despite the recent decision by the US to sanction it. Tokyo Gas, one of Japan’s largest LNG buyers, was encouraged to continue holding upstream gas assets in Asia and the US when the G7 carved out a loophole for gas investments this summer.
This is the power of political leaders’ promises. They’re not legally binding, but they signal to industry players that business-as-usual is perfectly acceptable. Even if executives and investors are climate-conscious, politicians’ nods strongly nudge investments in fossil fuels, shaping a competitive environment that few can resist.
What Should Be Done?
What should the Kishida administration do instead? Disabusing itself of the belief that protecting Japan’s energy security is synonymous with continued fossil fuel imports is the obvious first step. Studies have repeatedly demonstrated that Japan has enough renewable energy potential to fulfill all of its energy needs. Accepting this, it should formulate a detailed timeline for a rapid phaseout of all coal plants and for accelerating renewable energy deployment. At COP last week, 116 countries agreed to triple renewable energy capacity globally by 2030. Japan could live up to this agreement at home. Finally, instead of simply halting public funding for fossil fuels abroad, Kishida can mandate Japan’s export credit agencies and development banks to pour funds and technical know-how into developing renewable energy across the world.