Offshore Wind, G7 Summit, and a Newspaper Ad
Offshore wind has enormous potential. Japanese elites are on board. Will the G7 talk about it?
Financial newspapers are powerful things. In the US, it’s the Wall Street Journal. The UK has the Financial Times and the Economist. Japan’s premier financial news is told by Nikkei (whose English-language arm is the Nikkei Asia). These are newspapers read by business elites, politicians and bureaucrats, and the market.
Nikkei is a behemoth of a newspaper. With a circulation of its morning edition 1.7 million copies, it’s the largest newspaper in the world 🤯. On April 4, the Renewable Energy Institute (REI) and Japan Wind Power Association (JWPA) ran a beautifully designed ad.
Its poetic message reads:
Ocean. Seeing the potential that lies ahead,
many countries have begun full-scale efforts.
We would like to invite the G7 leaders to discuss,
at the G7 Ministers' Meeting on Climate, Energy and Environment
that will be held soon,
the attracting power generation using offshore wind,
which is about to become common sense in the world.
For Japan, which is surrounded by the sea,
the benefits it brings are enormous.
While coexisting with fisheries and local communities,
while protecting the ecosystem,
we will carefully utilize the sea
as a place to create sustainable energy.
Now is the time to open the path
and set sail for a prosperous future.
The time has come to change course
in order to seriously promote CO2 reduction
together with the countries of the world.
Industry is also hoping for a shift.
Offshore wind power in Japan, too.
Hope is above the sea.
With Japan assuming this year’s G7 Presidency, the city of Hiroshima in southwestern Japan will be the gathering place for the leaders of the western world. Would an ad in a newspaper persuade Prime Minister Kishida to put offshore wind on the agenda?
Beyond the REI and JWPA, 35 organizations put their names on the ad. They include heavyweight wind power infrastructure and maritime companies – wind power manufacturers MHI Vestas, Ørsted Japan, Mitsubishi Offshore Wind, shipping company Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, trading and investment firm Marubeni, to name a few.
These are companies that will obviously benefit from a government initiative to build more offshore wind. With ~20,000 manufactured parts needed to build offshore wind power generation, a push to scale up this technology will make winners out of a dizzying array of companies.
But direct profits for these companies aren’t where the benefits end. The cost of offshore power is already more competitive than conventional thermal electricity in Europe. In Japan, too, the targets set by the government to increase offshore wind by 2030 to 2035 will reduce its cost to be at par with prices in Europe today. In short, all energy consumers – which is to say everyone – will benefit as offshore wind capacity increases.
Potential for Harnessing Offshore Wind in Japan
On its website, REI has a good overview on the global offshore wind landscape and Japan’s role in it.
Over the last decade, installed offshore wind capacity has expanded from 3.8 GW in 2011 to 63.2 GW in 2022 (a 1,563% jump!), with most of that construction being propelled by China and Europe.It still only provides 0.3% of global power generation, but its potential is enormous, given policies set by governments in response to the recent energy crisis. REI estimates that offshore wind capacity will expand to 371 GW by 2031.
And of course there’s that much room to grow. The world hasn’t even come close to tapping the full power generation potential of offshore wind. In late 2019, the IEA said that offshore wind has the potential to generate more than 420,000 terawatt hours per year worldwide today, which translates to more than 18x global electricity demand.
The gap between reality and potential holds true in Japan too.
As an island nation, Japan faces the Pacific Ocean to the east and the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea to the west.
This wind map by the New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization provides a nice illustration of the sheer windiness of the surrounding waters. The red and pink areas experience the strongest wind, between 8.5 - 10 meters per second. There’s enough wind to generate more than 8 times the domestic electricity consumption in Japan, according to the IEA.
As a key to unlocking this full potential, the REI points to the need for harvesting the winds above the deep sea. To capitalize on the wind blowing over the water with a depth of about 200 meters (~656 feet), turbines that float on the water rather than those fixed to the ocean floor need to be deployed en masse. Most of the offshore wind in Japan are these fixed kinds, at less than 50 meters (~164 feet) of depth.
Fortunately, there’s a consensus in Japan among politicians, bureaucrats and businesses on the need to rapidly increase offshore wind. The Japan Times reports that the Prime Minister and his party have urged the government to come up with a strategy “to make better use of the sea.” The government set a target to increase offshore wind power to 10 GW by 2030 and to 30-45 GW by 2040 (p. 61). This latter target for the year 2040 includes floating offshore wind. For perspective, that’s equivalent to 45 nuclear reactors. Japan had 54 nuclear reactors operating before the Fukushima earthquake.
Japan’s largest business lobby, Keidanren, is also on board with this plan. It stresses the need for government support for building supply chains and developing technology that will help push down costs of offshore wind. Keidanren’s support is a big deal, given its close relationship with the leading political party.
So far, the G7 summit’s agenda contains a Ministers’ Meeting on Climate, Energy and Environment, but offshore wind isn’t explicitly mentioned. But its stated goal of “Achiev[ing] both energy security and net-zero including by utilizing all energy sources” certainly should include a detailed discussion of the potential and challenges of offshore wind.
Let’s hope that the elegant ad in the Nikkei can play some small part in bringing the issue to the international table.